Systems and Means of Informatics
2026, Volume 36, Issue 3, pp 3-34
FORECASTING OF RISKS OF ADVERSE EVENTS IN DATA TRANSMISSION AND PROCESSING NETWORKS
- V. Yu. Korolev
- D. Yu. Volkanov
- T. D. Gerasin
Abstract
An algorithm is proposed for forecasting the risks of adverse events related to anomalous values of quality of service characteristics in data transmission channels. This method is based on a modified Peaks-Over-Threshold technique. The study considers data represented by a time series of values for four quality of service characteristics: bandwidth, round-trip-time, jitter, and relative number of lost packets aggregated per second. These characteristics were computed from real data collected in a real data transmission and processing network. As adverse events, overloads, packet losses, and large values of round- trip times are considered. The proposed method makes it possible to forecast the risks of adverse events by calculating the probabilities that an adverse event occurs during a specified time interval or estimation of the distribution of the time interval till the next adverse event. The method is designed to be applied in the sliding window mode which makes it possible to use this approach for the analysis of nonhomogeneous and nonstationary processes and/or flows of events.
The purpose of forecasting is to choose the optimal transmission channel with the account of the corresponding requirements to the quality of transmission and the network state providing the given values of the parameters of quality of service.
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[+] About this article
Title
FORECASTING OF RISKS OF ADVERSE EVENTS IN DATA TRANSMISSION AND PROCESSING NETWORKS
Journal
Systems and Means of Informatics
Volume 36, Issue 3, pp 3-34
Cover Date
2026-11-15
DOI
10.14357/08696527260301
Print ISSN
0869-6527
Publisher
Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences
Additional Links
Key words
data transmission and processing networks; quality of service; generalized Renyi theorem; Balkema-Pickands-De Haan theorem; Peaks- Over- Threshold method; forecasting of risks of adverse events
Authors
V. Yu. Korolev  ,  , D. Yu. Volkanov , and T. D. Gerasin
Author Affiliations
Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1-52 Leninskie Gory, GSP-1, Moscow 119991, Russian Federation
Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control", Russian Academy of Sciences, 44-2 Vavilov Str., Moscow 119333, Russian Federation
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