Systems and Means of Informatics

2025, Volume 35, Issue 4, pp pp 143-153

AN APPROACH TO USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN HYPOTHESES FORMING FOR CONCRETE HISTORICAL INVESTIGATION

  • I. M. Adamovich
  • O. I. Volkov

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of means of concrete historical investigation supporting. The proposed approach allows one to determine the priority directions of information search by automatically forming the reasonable hypotheses. A special feature of the approach is its focus not on isolated historical facts but on the dynamics of the development of concrete historical processes. The approach is based on the methods of cluster analysis of time series. The article describes the features of time series reflecting information available in historical sources on changes in certain objects and phenomena in the past. The algorithms that best match these features have been identified. Special attention is paid to the definition of a specific similarity measure for such time series. An example of data reflecting the peculiarities of Old Believer entrepreneurship in the Russian Empire is considered in detail and it is shown how, using the described approach, it is possible to make an informed assumption about the assignment of the object of research to Old Believers.

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