Systems and Means of Informatics
2018, Volume 28, Issue 3, pp 86-103
ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS IN FORECASTING CARGO TRANSPORTATION
- K. R. Usmanova
- S. P. Kudiyarov
- R. V. Martyshkin
- A. A. Zamkovoy
- V. V. Strijov
Abstract
The authors analyze relationship and conformity between indicators in control system, monitoring of state, and accounting of railway cargo transportation. Macroeconomic time series that contain control actions, system state, and target criteria are considered. The authors suppose that control actions, state, and goal-setting are statistically related. Granger causality test is used to establish a relationship between time series. It is assumed that a pair of time series are related if the use of the history of one of the series improves the quality of the forecast of the other. The main goal of this analysis is to improve the quality of cargo transportation forecast. The computational experiment is carried out on data about cargo transportation, control actions, and set target criteria.
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[+] About this article
Title
ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS IN FORECASTING CARGO TRANSPORTATION
Journal
Systems and Means of Informatics
Volume 28, Issue 3, pp 86-103
Cover Date
2018-09-30
DOI
10.14357/08696527180307
Print ISSN
0869-6527
Publisher
Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences
Additional Links
Key words
time series; forecasting; Granger causality test; control system; target criteria
Authors
K. R. Usmanova  , S. P. Kudiyarov  , R. V. Martyshkin ,
A. A. Zamkovoy , and V. V. Strijov 
Author Affiliations
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, 9 Institutskiy Per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region 141701, Russian Federation
Joint Stock Company "Institute of Economics and Transport Development," 24 Novoryazanskaya Str., Moscow 105066, Russian Federation
A. A. Dorodnicyn Computing Center, Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 40 Vavilov Str., Moscow 119333, Russian Federation
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